Broad Market Internals, November 3, 2014  
Oct produced the best volume since May ’12, with the surge concentrated on the sell-off in the first half of the month but activity again ticking up last week. Best readings were in Resources broadly (again), as well as large parts of Industrials and Healthcare.

Breadth improved modestly to only lagging having grown increasingly weak through the end of Q1. 52wk highs ended the month at an 8m record, around 2/3rds of the +2.5yr record from last May, with the best concentrations in Consumer Noncyclicals (again), Utilities, and downstream areas in Healthcare, with the lows largely evaporated ex PMs having set a 3yr record midmonth.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - hit the most extreme overbought levels since mid Feb last week, while the recently more important 25-day indicator produced the most overbought readings since Jun.

At the same time the intermediate 50-day indicator has rallied back to heavily overbought after hitting the most extreme oversold levels since fall ‘12 in the 2nd week of Oct.

Finally the LT 200-day indicator is back into mildly overbought territory but at the worst levels during the month readings fell well short of the lows seen on the fall ‘11 decline. The broad market is at or very near extreme ST overbought levels, and a reaction to the powerful - if somewhat technically narrow - gains off the Oct lows is likely imminent, the internal performance of which should provide clues to the IT direction for the market.



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Sector Rotation Model Portfolio Performance, as at October 10, 2014 


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Broad Market Internals, October 3, 2014 
Volume ticked up modestly in Sep relative to the worst reading in history in Aug, but this was predominantly due to a surge on triple witching and the pickup on market weakness at the end of the month. Best readings were in Resources: Chemicals, Industrial Metals, Oil Equip & Svcs, and Industrial Mining.

Breadth has not picked up in Sep after initially starting to lag at the end of Q1 and turning poor through early Jul. At the best levels at the start of the month 52wk highs amounted to around a 1/3rd of the +2.5yr record from last May before collapsing into the end of the month, when the best concentrations were in Consumer Noncyclicals and Gas Distr, with the lows at a 3yr record last week.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have risen to mildly oversold after last week hitting the most extreme oversold levels since mid Apr, while the recently more important 25-day indicator registered the most oversold reading since late ‘11.

At the same time the intermediate 50-day indicator hit the most extreme oversold readings since fall ’12, after the prior advance petered out at the weakest reading on record.

Notwithstanding serious internal weakness, the magnitude of the recent broad market decline is of a similar degree seen Jul through early Aug and that does not yet seem consistent with the weight of the technical red flags that have emerged over the past few quarters. Near term the broad market is very oversold and should rally, but equally that is a position waterfall declines can develop from albeit with a small probability.



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Broad Market Internals, May 30, 2014  
Volume collapsed in May registering the worst monthly tally of ’14 and casting doubt on the emerging theme of better activity levels seen earlier in the year. Best readings were in Media and Electricity, with Metals & Mining, Discretionary Consumer Goods, and Integrated Banks all exceptionally weak.

Breadth was again soft as has generally been the case since mid Mar, consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs have remained highly subdued barely inching above the Apr best, Fri closing less than a 1/4qtr of the +2.5yr record from last May, with the best concentrations currently in Tobacco, Integrated Oil & Gas and Pipelines (for the 2nd and 3rd consecutive months respectively), and Office Equip. 52wk lows set an 18m record early May before ending the month negligible, with the worst concentrations in Mining and Comp Hardware.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have started to pull back after early last week hitting the most extreme overbought levels since mid Feb, but the recently more important 25-day indicator has only just entered heavily overbought territory suggesting the rally off the midmonth lows may have a little further to run.

At the same time the intermediate 50-day moving average has rallied back to mildly overbought, but recent intermediate market highs have coincided with dwindling peaks in this indicator since last spring. Finally the LT 200-day indicator is just about mildly overbought having steadily declined since setting a +2yr record last Jul. As a result the broad market is hitting record highs with barely half of all stocks above their 200-day moving average and 52wk highs near negligible!.



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Sector Rotation Model Portfolio, as at May 16, 2014  


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