Broad Market Internals, week beginning September 16, 2013 
Volume was the best since the first week of Aug but only marginally so, indicating it remains highly anaemic and is probably deteriorating somewhat allowing for seasonality. Best areas were Autos & Parts and Mobile Telecoms (both for the fifth straight week), Pipelines (for the second week), as well as Office Equip.

Breadth lagged again as has generally been the case since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. At the best levels Tue 52wk highs were just over 1/2 of the May 3yr record before being halved by Fri, with the best concentrations in Aero & Def, Office Equip, and Healthcare Providers, with the lows negligible.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - Tue hit the most extreme overbought levels since mid Jul, just inside the range from which short term reversals usually develop within a few days.

However, the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator has broken out of the downtrend off the mid Jul highs after hitting levels only marginally below those from which the market bottomed mid Apr/mid Jun. This suggests the presence of still considerable pent up strength, and with a meaningful up-phase in the recently reliable 8wk cycle now having emerged the trend over the next few weeks should be higher, with longer cycles currently in a configuration that could result in blow-off style exhaustion move.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning September 9, 2013 
Weekly volume was the second worst of ‘13, but on a holiday adjusted basis the run rate easily eclipsed the two preceding weeks and looks on par with levels early Aug suggesting the post Labor Day adage remains true to form. Best areas were Autos & Parts and Mobile Telecoms (both for the fourth straight week), and Pipelines, Fixed Line Telecoms and Water.

Breadth continues the lagging theme through mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs are tentatively building now around a 1/5th of the May 3yr record with the best levels in Integrated Oil & Gas and Internet, while the lows have been substantially eliminated and recently well contained.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have rallied off extreme oversold levels in the second half of Aug, and are now back in neutral territory, and should have considerably further to run up if the market remains in an uptrend.

Meanwhile the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator has rallied to just mildly oversold from oversold the preceding week, but the overall downtrend through mid Jul remains intact for now. The recent bounce has developed from positions similar to those mid Apr/mid Jun that suggested significant underlying market strength, however, the failure of the market to gain any traction from a turn higher in the recently reliable 8wk cycle is a major concern indicating longer cycles have already topped or are in the process of rolling over.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning September 3, 2013  
Volume was fractionally higher last week, but remains overall very depressed, with the recent theme of significantly better readings accompanying down days still intact. Best areas were Autos & Parts and Mobile Telecoms (both for the third straight week), and PMs.

Breadth was mixed on the week ending softer following on from a lagging tendency since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs are negligible after at the best levels mid Jul falling just shy of the mid May 3yr record, with the lows also negligible but heavily concentrated in Industrial Metals.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - are back in heavily oversold territory following a weak rally into neutral after mid Aug hitting the most extreme oversold levels since last Nov.

Meanwhile the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator has declined into oversold territory, Fri setting a 9m low but still just about in the vicinity of possible support around levels that have previously triggered sustainable upside reversals mid Apr/late Jun. However, the cyclical picture appears to be deteriorating and it is increasingly probable that the long 15m cycle in the broad market is in the process of topping, with the next major low expected around the middle of Q1 next year, although a sharp rally and even new highs remain distinct possibilities once the current bout of weakness has subsided.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning August 26, 2013  
Volume lurched lower from already very soft levels earlier in the month with weakness especially pronounced on the rally into the end of the week. Best areas were Autos & Parts and Mobile Telecoms (both again).

Breadth was fractionally better after generally having lagged since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs are tentatively building Fri around a 1/5th of the best levels mid Jul that fell just shy of the mid May 3yr record, with the lows substantially eliminated and recently fairly well contained.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have rallied back to neutral after at the start of the week hitting the most extreme oversold levels since last Nov, comfortably in the range of readings that reliably trigger short term upside reversals.

Meanwhile the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator remains in neutral territory after Mon setting a 2m record low near levels that had previously caused the market to reverse higher following softness into the mid Apr/mid Jun lows. This would be consistent with the LT 200-day indicator setting a 2.5yr record high mid Jul indicating significant underlying strength, but it is a concern that the market has so far failed to gain much lift from a likely bottom in the recently dominant 8wk cycle last week. This may yet arrive but the absence of better momentum soon could signal longer cycles have topped.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning August 19, 2013 
Volume remained very soft last week comfortably below the already anaemic levels on the July advance. Best areas were PMs, Mobile Telecoms, Home Builders, and Autos & Parts.

Breadth continues to lag through mid Jul. consistent with the LT trend, following better readings from Jun. 52wk highs are negligible after at the best levels mid Jul falling just shy of the mid May 3yr record, with the lows tentatively building but still below the worst levels from late Jun and the highest concentrations in Real Estate.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have retreated into extreme oversold territory, well within the range from which short term rallies typically develop within a few days.

At the same time the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator has corrected back into neutral after hitting extreme overbought levels mid Jul, and remains well short of extreme oversold levels that reliably trigger longer term reversals. However, the two most recent corrections - into the Apr and Jun lows - saw the indicator fail to decline below mildly oversold levels, and with the LT 200-day indicator that normally acts as a leading indicator signalling still significant underlying strength having set a 2.5yr record mid Jul, there is a fair chance that the uptrend will resume from a similar position without the broad market suffering much further technical damage.



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