MarketScalpel Website & Technology Changes, Fall 2013 
Over the past week or so we have made some significant changes to the MarketScalpel public and client websites.

These changes have essentially involved moving to alternative website technologies offering significantly greater flexibility.

In the first instance the objective has been the wholesale replacement of current systems together with a general makeover, but in future these changes pave the way for the roll out new features and services with various benefits, including significantly enhanced database integration.

We look forward to announcing the first of these new services around year-end.

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Broad Market Internals, week beginning November 18, 2013 
Volume pulled back materially last week following 3 weeks of much improved readings, reverting to the depressed levels seen Sep and most of Oct. Best areas were Autos & Parts and Environmental (for the 4th and 6th straight week respectively), Office Equip, and Comms Tech.

Breadth improved from soft levels the two preceding weeks, but continued to lag as has generally been the case since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs ended the week around 1/2 of the marginal new 3yr record set mid Oct, with the best concentrations in Office Equip, Tobacco, Insurance, and Household Nondurables, with the lows negligible.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - ended the week highly overbought just short of extreme levels that ST downside reversals reliably develop from.

Meanwhile the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator is now mildly overbought, having pulled out of the correction off extreme overbought levels late Oct, but the indicator has recently becoming somewhat unstable which is often seen in the vicinity of inflection points. Similarly the LT 200-day indicator is highly overbought, but well below Oct 3m high that itself fell some distance short of the +2yr record from Jul. These important non-confirmations continue the broad market is vulnerable to a correction, as is also indicated by the cyclical position in the broad market where the dominant 15m cycle is overdue for a top with the next bottom pencilled in mid Q1.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning November 11, 2013  
Volume was only fractionally higher week-on-week, but improved readings have been sustained for the third week suggesting the overdue seasonal improvement has finally arrived. Best areas were Mobile Telecoms, Autos & Parts and Environmental (for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th straight week respectively), Specialized Consumer Svcs, and E&P

Breadth was soft for the second straight week after generally having lagged since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs ended the week around 2/5ths of the marginal new 3yr record set mid Oct, with the best concentrations in Integrated Banks, Aero & Def and Diversified Industrials (for the 3rd and 2nd straight weeks respectively), and Regional Banks, with the lows recently negligible.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - ended the week neutral after bouncing Thu from heavily oversold levels just shy of the area from which ST rallies reliably develop from.

Meanwhile the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator continues to decline ending the week just back in mildly overbought territory having hit neutral levels Thu, while the LT 200-day indicator continues to trend lower after at the late Oct highs falling short of the +2yr record from Jul.

Multiple technical non-confirmations now exist that are typically precursors for an intermediate top of some importance.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning November 4, 2013  
Volume declined modestly relative to the preceding week, and remains overall unseasonally soft. Best areas were Mobile Telecoms, Environmental (for the 3rd straight week), Internet, Forestry & Paper, and Autos & Parts (again).

Breadth was soft after generally having lagged since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs ended the week less than a 1/4qtr of the marginal new 3yr record set mid Oct, with the best concentrations in Diversified Industrials, Aero & Def (again), and Industrial Metals, while the lows remain overall negligible albeit with a fairly heavy concentration in Ag Chems.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have declined back into mildly oversold, but remain some distance shy of levels from which ST oversold rallies reliably develop from within a few days.

Meanwhile the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator continues to drop now just above only mildly overbought territory having hit extreme levels mid Oct, while the LT 200-day indicator also appears to be rolling over after at the best levels in recent week having failed to get close to the +2yr record from Jul. Multiple technical non-confirmations are now in place in the broad market that invariably precede intermediate declines of some importance, with time generally running short for a down-phase to develop in the recently reliable 15m cycle in the broad market that is next due to bottom mid Q1.



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Broad Market Internals, week beginning October 28, 2013  
Volume picked up somewhat but overall remains unseasonally soft. Best areas were Environmental and Household Durables (both again), Comms Tech, Autos & Parts, and Office Equip.

Breadth was fractionally worse after generally having lagged since mid Jul consistent with the LT trend. 52wk highs ended the week around 2/3rds of the marginal new 3yr record set the preceding Fri, with the best concentrations in Mobile Telecoms (for the 5th straight week), Gas Distribution, Aero & Def, and Regional Banks, while the lows remain negligible.

Short term indicators - measuring the percentage of stocks above their 10-day moving average - have slipped to mildly overbought after the preceding Fri hitting the most extreme levels since Jul, confirming the narrowing in stock leadership indicated by new 52wk highs.

Similarly the intermediate 50-day moving average indicator Fri just fell out of extreme overbought territory, while the rally in the LT 200-day indicator is stalling some distance short of the late Jul +2yr record. Despite the broad market almost continuously hitting new record highs since the preceding week, important non-confirmations have not been relived. Furthermore, while volume has been building it remains overall soft, and there are certainly no signs that a blow-off style melt-up is in prospect. The recently regular 8wk cycle in the broad market is next due to bottom around the turn of the month, but may instead be inverting where a projected low instead turns into a high.



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